|My thoughts and opinions|
The landslide victory of Donald Trump in the recently held U.S. presidential election has raised numerous questions and expectations worldwide, including in Bangladesh. Bangladesh, an essential South Asian state and an enduring ally of America, may find its following diplomatic, economic, and security priorities changing on the first date of a newly revived Trump administration. An interesting ray of light falls on the political foundry and the administration of Bangladesh as we get some insight through absolute data from a Trump win.
Change in Diplomacy and Foreign Policy
Trump’s foreign policy will be more directed towards China’s approach in Asia and other parts of the world. Given Bangladesh’s substantial economic and infrastructural investments with China over the past few years, primarily through projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), this position might have ramifications for Dhaka. Under Trump, Washington followed a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” strategy to contain China, which might also repeat itself this time.
Bangladesh may be forced into a more flexible Hindi between America and China, which would align external tug with burning domestic needs of foreign trade from the USA. At the same time, China is swinging towards a dictatorial, keep-investing mode. The Trump administration may push Bangladesh to adhere to more U.S.-aligned stances on geopolitical matters, thus straining or undermining its foreign policy.
Furthermore, U.S. policies towards South Asia may reflect Trump’s bond with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This alignment may also determine U.S. support for India’s interests in the region, creating additional pressure on Bangladeshi policies to manage its affairs with China. Trump Administration Will Push Bangladesh Away from China Under a Hardline Policy on Containing China in Asia
Trade and Economic Policies
Trump has always run an America First Trade Policy, holding off the onshoring of manufacturing jobs and committing to creating strict trade terms. Trump could affect Bangladesh’s economy, particularly in the garment sector—as he was willing to enact tariffs and re-negotiate trade deals when he was in office. Bangladeshi garments contribute massively to the country’s GDP and employment, and the US is one of their most prominent export destinations.
Import demand may fall as the new Trump administration pushes an agenda of domestic manufacturing. Suppose tariff hikes or more stringent trade agreements are imposed. In that case, Bangladesh’s ready-made garment industry may find it difficult to sustain its current level of exports to the U.S. This will compel Bangladesh to diversify its trade partners and new export markets to minimise any potential economic fallout.
Pressures on Human Rights and Governance
The Trump administration, for example, may not approach Bangladesh’s human rights and governance issues in the same way that more recent Democratic administrations have. Democrats like to frame foreign policy principles around human rights, democracy, and governance. At the same time, Trump has a long history of an economic-strategic approach to foreign policy, pragmatic but less interventionist.
However, if Congress or rights groups turn up the heat, Trump could still raise human rights and governance issues with Bangladesh. Concerns about press freedom, the rights of minorities or election conduct could become rallying cries if they coincided with larger U.S. strategic objectives in the region. The executive branch may have less direct pressure on the Bangladesh government. Nonetheless, these issues could still find a louder voice through global human rights organisations, further contributing to internal and external pressure on the Bangladeshi regime.
Working together to Combat Security and Counterterrorism
Bangladesh is a crucial counterterrorism and regional stability partner for the United States. Security cooperation with Bangladesh under Trump will continue and deepen if countering China’s influence stays a U.S. priority. To offset China’s expanding footprint in the region, the U.S. could facilitate more security support for Bangladesh, such as training, intelligence-sharing, and even additional defence sales.
Bangladesh’s government can use this partnership to bolster its security forces and domestic counterterrorism efforts, pivoting toward internal order and border control. This means there could be changes in Bangladesh’s domestic political environment, as any strengthened security apparatus usually comes with concerns over its use.
Consequences for Bangladeshi diaspora community in the U.S.
Another adjusted area is immigration policy. During his last administration, Trump imposed a slew of restrictive immigration policies that would likely resurface should he return to the White House again, impacting Bangladeshi nationals hoping to work, study or settle in the U.S. Widespread change of immigration policy in the U.S. could also affect remittances and leave families feeling uncertain over ties with Bangladesh, where a significant Bangladeshi community exists.
Although the Bangladesh government may not be directly affected by a more brutal U.S. immigration policy, the repercussions could be much more profound due to remittances sent home from overseas—particularly among the Bangladeshi diaspora and their families in Bangladesh proper. Bangladesh is also highly dependent on remittances, and any changes to the U.S. immigrant or non-immigrant work visa regime can translate into fewer remittance inflows from expatriate Bangladeshis and have a spillover effect on local economies.
Conclusion
Get ready for an America First foreign policy: Donald Trump’s win heralds a return to economic nationalism & pragmatic security coalitions, and competition against China. For Bangladesh, this implies a recalibrating period wherein an administration balances competing global powers while trying to safeguard its own economic and security interests. As Bangladesh embarks on an ambitious economic growth strategy while maintaining its national security and addressing the needs of its 1.2 million diasporas in the US, managing bilateral relations with both Washington and Beijing will be one of Bangladesh’s foremost challenges.
Bangladesh’s diplomatic wriggle in the years ahead may have to be evaluated, as there could be pitfalls and prospects. The cyclical shifting of alliances in the international arena holds an essential lesson for Bangladesh’s policymakers. To prosper under the new U.S. system, the administration may need to revise its decades-old piecemeal and reactive foreign policy approach into a more preemptive and adaptive one.