September approaches for Bangladesh, yielding both promise and fear. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) has published its long-term forecast, indicating that many areas in the country are expected to receive “normal rain.” However, the specifics present a somewhat ominous image.
Flash Flood Risks Ahead
The BMD forecasted the possibility of flash floods in three high-risk areas, including the northern, northeastern, and southeastern parts of the country. Unlike seasonal monsoon flooding caused by swollen rivers, these flash floods can occur with little to no notice. The risk is localised heavy downpours — torrential rain overwhelms the rivers, canals, and drainage networks in our towns.
(All these non-deluge forecasts were available here.) This forecast also suggests that the major rivers of Bangladesh will continue to flow more or less normally this month. The point of this paradox is to underscore the challenge. While the country may not experience widespread river flooding, it doesn’t mean that sudden, catastrophic inundations can’t still beset isolated communities.
Trouble Brewing in the Bay
The Bay of Bengal remains a key focus in the September outlook. The BMD forecast is for the development of two to three low-pressure areas in the Bay. At least one of those systems poses a risk of strengthening into a depression or even a meteorological one, producing higher rainfall and stronger winds.
To coastal residents, it is a familiar but nerve-racking scenario. A depression can mean days of nonstop rain, high seas, and disruptions to daily life, including local agriculture or fishing.
Heat Returns Amid the Rains
Although rain takes precedence in the forecast, heat also plays a factor. High and low temperatures both day and night will be above the monthly average. The BMD predicts one to two mild heatwaves, with temperatures rising from 36°C to 37.9°C In a country that – unable for much of the year to avoid the steaming climate – is already struggling with high humidity, it is sure to bring a layer of discomfort and danger as well, in particular for groups at risk like children, elderly and the outdoor labour force.
What does it mean for you?
The conclusion from the BMD’s September forecast is obvious:
Keep an eye out for Flash Flood Warning in the north, northeast and southeast.
Monitor the progress of the Bay of Bengal, where the low-pressure centres could form and develop amazingly fast.
Get ready for above-normal temperatures and be mindful of heatwaves.
In conclusion, though the rainfall may average to “normal,” it can come in strong, intense episodes that leave us vigilantly on guard.
As Bangladesh goes through this month of mixed weather signals, it is clear that being informed is the first line of defence. Official reports or statements from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department… are the most reliable source of information at the moment.
September, then, is not just about weathering the weather; it is about expecting it.
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